Seacube Containers

Journal of Commerce Annual Review & Outlook 2026

By Robert Sappio

Last year on these same pages, many predicted that 2025 would be a year full of volatility and uncertainty. Those forecasts proved to be correct. Rapidly shifting trade policy, geopolitics, macro risks, persistent port congestion, new carrier alliances and changing environmental agendas all conspired to make demand and fleet planning for vessels and equipment an arduous task.

Looking to the horizon, 2026 doesn’t look much improved and most are even more cautious about the year ahead. While there are tail-winds, stiff headwinds persist, and once again uncertainty and volatility will be our constant companions. Tepid trade growth and moderating demand driven by an uncertain trade policy and global risk is front and center for 2026. Add to this an orderbook for new vessels standing at 30% of the existing fleet, with newbuild deliveries outpacing demand growth out to 2029.

This dynamic could be further exacerbated by easing tensions in the Red Sea which would release of structural oversupply is real, with too many ships and too many dry containers in the system. Geopolitical risks and ever-changing trade policy will remain.